Investment Valuation in India

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MUTUAL FUND OVERVIEW What is a Mutual Fund? A mutual fund is a pool of money that is professionally managed for the benefit of all shareholders. As an investor in a mutual fund, you own a portion of the fund, sharing in any increases or decreases in the value of the fund. A mutual fund may focus on stocks, bonds, cash, derivatives or a combination of these asset classes. There are different types of mutual funds. Some mutual funds are riskier than others. For example, it is unlikely that you will lose money in a mutual fund that buys money market instruments, such as treasury bills. Risk can sometimes work in your favor: the higher the risk, the bigger the potential return (and the bigger the potential loss); the lower the risk, the smaller the potential return (and the smaller the potential loss). To reduce your overall risk and enhance potential returns, you should invest in a diversified portfolio of mutual funds which have different risk characteristics. An investment in a Fund is ...

Nothing is going good for the economy (whether India or the world). The markets are down and no one knows where it is heading. But there is one common view. The markets have bottomed out and there is little downside from here. However, no one knows when is it going to revive. The levels of 21000 seems fantasy at this point. Analysts are jobless and are considered a liability to the erstwhile employers who used to flaunt a research division not more than 4 months ago. But it is said that if there is anything that comes for free in India, it is advise. So here I am, giving free advise. I know I wont be paid foir it anyways ;-) Seven ways to tackle the bear run Stick to stocks of large companies Look for debt free companies Search for businesses that are insulated (well, relatively) from the slowdown Look for companies that largely depend on domestic revenues Search for value stocks (generally cash-rich companies) Have an investment horizon for at least 2-3 years In case of mid-cap stocks...

"India, with its strong internal drivers for growth, may escape the worst consequences of the global financial crisis. Indian banks have very limited exposure to the US mortgage market, directly or through derivatives, and to the failed and stressed financial institutions. The equity and the forex markets provide the channels through which the global crisis can spread to the Indian system. The other three segments of the financial markets - money, debt and credit markets could be impacted indirectly. Risk aversion, deleveraging and frozen money markets have not only raised the cost of funds for Indian corporates but also its availability in the international markets. This will mean additional demand for domestic bank credit in the near term. Reduced investor interest in emerging economies could impact capital flows significantly. The impending recession will also impact on Indian exports. Even EMEs which do not have direct or significant exposure to stressed financial instrumen...

Until recently, emerging markets were one of the few bright spots left in a world economy hit by massive deleveraging, failing banks, and corporate profit warnings. But now, the crisis is spreading beyond the advanced economies where it originated, with emerging markets all over the world suffering from the squeeze in global financial markets. In terms of equity prices too, after more than a year of relatively small spillovers from the financial turmoil in advanced economies, equity prices in emerging markets succumbed to the dramatic worsening of financial distress in mid-September 2008. Still, in early October, despite their steep and abrupt declines, emerging equity prices as a group were still well above their level at the beginning of their rally in the early part of this decade. Moreover, unlike in past crises, the size of the spillover has not been uniform, reflecting the deepening of these markets, the different economic fundamentals among emerging market economies, and the g...

“Sail with the tide” is the apt phrase for those who talk about the economy, markets you name it. Except for those who did not invest in India, every one talked about the fundamentals and the growth rate projections for India’s GDP went as high as 15% by some eminent global analysts. Now when the markets have come down, every one has become an astrologer in retrospect. Every one is saying that India was overvalued and this downfall was obvious et al. India’s GDP growth accelerated to an average of 9.3% during the three years ending March 2008 compared with an average of 6.6% and 6.0% in the preceding three and five years, respectively. “The most important driver for this acceleration in growth above potential was the sharp rise in capital inflows” – believes Chetan Ahya, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley. Capital inflows have risen dramatically over the past five years. India received an average of $10 billion per annum between 2000 and 2002. During 2003-2005, capital inflows jumped ...

History has already been made by Barack Obama becoming President of the United States. The man of mixed ethnicity is considered to be the utterly representative of the 21st century America. He is expected to reverse (for the better, of course) the image of America abroad and refresh the spirits back home. But we all saw that this was amongst the most sought after elections in the US. The passion of the elections in the US is understood, but why are we all here in India too were so curious about the elections in the US. One would say that we have become more globalised. Sure we have. But I guess there’s more to it. Our economy has developed deeper linkages with the US around increased trade, currency and investment. India Inc is one of the largest employers in the US as was pointed out in a recent FICCI report, on the back of recent acquisitions and investments by a large number of Indian companies like Wockhardt, TCS, etc. All this has significantly increased the risks and impacts of...

We all usually get a lot of mails (junk ones), not all of them are junk though. I got a forwarded mail from a friend.... I found it interesting.. so here it is. If you could read patiently and understand, its a great knowledge ! 　 Once there was a little island country. The land of this country was the tiny island itself. The total money in circulation was 2 dollars as there were only two pieces of 1 dollar coins circulating around. 　 There were 3 citizens living on this island country. A owned the land. B and C each owned 1 dollar. B decided to purchase the land from A for 1 dollar. So, now A and C own 1 dollar each while B owned a piece of land that is worth 1 dollar. * The net asset of the country now = 3 dollars. 　 Now C thought that since there is only one piece of land in the country, and land is non producible asset, its value must definitely go up. So, he borrowed 1 dollar from A, and together with his own 1 dollar, he bought the land from B for 2 dollars. *A has a loan to C of...

Its Global Liquidity Crisis ! We all have been listening to this for a while now and are adversely affected by this. the global markets are down and money is flowing out of the emerging economies. I am being asked a very valid question time and again. If money is flowing out of (say) India, it must be going somewhere. For every outflow of money, there must be a corresponding inflow somewhere. But that's not the case. the whole world is facing this liquidity crisis. A gentleman (he invested a lot in the equities and has lost millions due to fall in the market; "the FIs are selling") came up with an answer that the FIs are sitting on cash. OK! lets take this for a while. But are they hold currency notes. Nopes. This money shud then be deposited in the bank accounts. But again this liquidity crisis is most faced by banks. the banks dont have money to lend, the interest rates are shooting up. So is it that the banks are holding money with themselves are not willing to lend. N...

The statements issued by the Prime Minister, Finance Minister, RBI Chief and Bank chairmen have at least some truth in it. This is seconded by the recent Crisil report. But again, there are two sides of a coin. The report says that the global crisis is not responsible for the challenges faced by the Indian Banks; but at the same time, there are a lot of internal factors that are responsible for the same. Contrary to the stance taken by authorities, ratings major Crisil has said domestic, not global factors are responsible for the current challenges facing the banking sector. In a statement issued on Tuesday, the ratings agency has said: “ Crisil believes that the Indian banking system is relatively insulated from factors leading to the turmoil in the global banking industry .” The statement goes on to add that the recent tight liquidity in the Indian market is also qualitatively different from the global liquidity crunch, which was caused by a crisis of confidence in banks lending t...

Economic value Added INTRODUCTION Economic Value Added™ is the financial performance measure that comes closer than any other to capturing the true economic profit of an enterprise. EVA also is the performance measure most directly linked to the creation of shareholder wealth over time. EVA = Net operating Profit After tax – (Capital Employed x Cost of Capital) Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT): A company's potential cash earnings if its capitalization were unleveraged (that is, if it had no debt). NOPAT is frequently used in economic value added (EVA) calculations. Calculated as: NOPAT = Operating Income x (1 - Tax Rate) Put most simply, EVA is net operating profit minus an appropriate charge for the opportunity cost of all capital invested in an enterprise. As such, EVA is an estimate of true "economic" profit, or the amount by which earnings exceed or fall short of the required minimum rate of return that shareholders and lenders could get by investing in other s...

The US Government, through the US Treasury and Federal Reserve, stepped in to save the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; refused to do anything about Lehman Brothers, let Bank of America help Merrill Lynch save itself and threw AIG a lifeline. Why this partiality? There’s reason ! Lets see why! The Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC) all are Government Sponsored Entities (GSEs) and they are known by the names Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Each purchases mortgages from lenders to provide funds for mortgage loans. The agencies issue three types of mortgage-backed securities: mortgage Pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations. and stripped mortgage-backed-securities. This process of combining many similar debt obligations as the collateral for issuing securities is called securitization. The primary reason for mortgage securitization is to incr...

The US Economy is weakening, why is Rupee depreciating (as compared to dollar) then? The rupee slumped to a five-year low of 47.10 in spite of the slowdown in the US Economy. Ideally when a country is in the slowdown the currency of that country should depreciate. Fine that India is slowing down too but is still growing at a rate more than the US. But why is the Rupee depreciating then. There is heavy dollar-demand from oil refiners and importers. Sentiment for the local currency was further dampened by losses on the stock markets on Monday (29-Sep-08). But the central bank intervened by selling up to $1 billion which helped prop up the rupee. We have the inflation climbing the ladder very fast with remote signs of coming down. The crude oil prices are extremely volatile. The GDP forecast is also trimmed every now and then. The current account deficit is widening. With not many positives in sight, traders see the rupee trading in the 47-per dollar range for the next few days. At the cu...

Accounting Impact From an accounting perspective, the focus in the United States has been on: • Convergence • Moving from rules-based standards to principles-based standards • Trending away from recording assets and liabilities at historical cost and moving to fair value. Convergence With the global environment in which companies operate, the FASB and the International Accounting Standards Board ("IASB") have dedicated themselves to improve financial reporting by evaluating the differences between US GAAP and IFRS and reducing those differences where possible. The two bodies are currently in the short-term phase of a longer-term convergence project. The goal of the short-term project is to reduce a variety of differences between US GAAP and IFRS. The short-term projects are those where significant differences do not exist and the Boards believe that they can reach agreement without a major overhaul of the current requirements. In addition to the convergence project, the ...

International Impact of SOX Foreign Private Issuers ("FPIs") registered on US Exchanges must comply with the Act in the same manner in which a US company does, with limited exceptions. The Act introduced additional requirements that many foreign companies did not anticipate when first deciding to enter US capital markets. As a result of these and other environmental changes, the direct and indirect costs of being an SEC registrant have increased and some foreign companies are reconsidering the US capital markets as a place to raise capital. Additionally, the PCAOB regulates the non-US auditors who have clients that are listed on an exchange in the US and registered with the SEC. This makes the non- US audit firms subject to the regulatory requirements, inspection process, and penalties dictated by the PCAOB. In response to the increase compliance costs, in March 2007, the SEC finalized rules allowing Foreign Private Issuers to deregister with the SEC if they meet certain ...

Sarbonex Oxley Act (SOX) or Investor Protection Act 2002 The Act was written by Senator Paul Sarbanes and Congressman Michael Oxley and enacted by the Congress of the United States in response to corporate management, accounting, and reporting scandals. The Act has heightened the role of regulation within the accounting industry and with it the role of the US Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and the newly created Public Company Accounting Oversight Board ("PCAOB") in that regulatory process. The Act represents the biggest change in the US corporate governance and reporting since the federal securities laws were first enacted in 1933 and 1934. The Act has required the SEC to issue more regulations within six months than the SEC had ever issued before in a similar period. Among other things, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act establishes new or enhanced standards for corporate accountability and has increased penalties for corporate wrongdoing for SEC registrants. The S...

Valuation is a critical part of the merger process. A deal that may be sound from a business standpoint may be unsound from a financial standpoint if the bidder firm pays too much. The purpose of a valuation analysis is to provide a disciplined procedure for arriving at a price. If the buyer offers too little, the target may resist and, since it is in play, seek to interest other bidders. If the price is too high, the premium may never be recovered from postmerger synergies. These general principles are illustrated by the following simple model. ANALYSIS Mergers increase value when the value of the combined firm is greater than the sum of the premerger values of the independent entities. NVI = V BT – ( V B - V T) where NVI = net value increase V B = value of bidder alone V T = value of target alone V BT = value of firms combined A simple example will illustrate. Company B (the bidder) has a current market value of Rs.40mn. Company T (the target) has a current market value of Rs.40mn. ...

Lehman Brothers was founded in 1850 by two cotton brokers in Montgomery, Ala. Lehman Brothers (ticker symbol: LEH) is headquartered in New York, with regional headquarters in London and Tokyo, and operates in a network of offices around the world. The Company operates three business segments: Capital Markets, Investment Banking and Investment Management. On September 14, 2008 Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (“LBHI”) stated that it has filed a petition under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York. None of the broker-dealer subsidiaries or other subsidiaries of LBHI was included in the Chapter 11 filing and all of the U.S. registered broker-dealers will continue to operate. In conjunction with the filing, LBHI intends to file a variety of first day motions that will allow it to continue to manage operations in the ordinary course. Those motions include requests to make wage and salary payments and continue ot...

A convertible bond (CB) is debt at issuance and through its life, until converted into shares. Conversion into shares happens if the share price is above a certain share price (“conversion price”) either at maturity or through the life of the bonds. Typically on the day the convertible bond is priced, the volume weighted average price of the shares or the closing price of the shares is taken as a base price (“reference price”). Conversion price is then calculated as (reference price x (1 + conversion premium)) , where the conversion premium is typically between 10% and 30%. The number of shares per bond is fixed by dividing the denomination of the bond with the conversion price. This defines the maximum number of new shares that can be issued at any time, limiting maximum dilution for existing shareholders. In order to see how this works, let us take a simple example: Assumptions Issue Amount: USD 25m Reference price (closing price of shares): USD 100 Denomination of bonds: USD 100,000...